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How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Ilke Aydogan, Aurélien Baillon, Emmanuel Kemel and Chen Li
Quantitative Economics, Vol.16(1), pp.329-365
01/01/2025

Abstract

Non-Bayesian updating conservatism confirmatory bias perceived signals belief elicitation
Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as if they missed 28% of the signals.
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Open Access CC BY-NC V4.0
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https://doi.org/10.3982/qe2094View
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