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Stocks as Lotteries? An Experimental Test of Expected Utility versus Behavioral Models
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Stocks as Lotteries? An Experimental Test of Expected Utility versus Behavioral Models

Brice Corgnet, Yao Thibaut Kpegli and Jacopo Magnani
The Review of Financial Studies
30/07/2026

Abstract

C92 G10 G40 Cognitive or Behavioral Models Finance
Our study provides the first causal test of classical and behavioral asset pricing models that incorporate skewness pricing. In line with these models, our experimental markets show that skewness is systematically priced. Our findings also reveal that positively skewed assets available in small supply exhibit negative expected returns, which is consistent with prospect theory, but not with expected utility models. Furthermore, in line with the mechanism underlying prospect theory, we show that the negative returns of the positively skewed asset are most pronounced during market sessions where traders overweight the low probability of receiving a large payoff.
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