Abstract
This paper explores the dynamics of consumers’ product and category consideration during category emergence. Extending the ideas of two-stage adoption of category consideration and product selection, this paper develops a dynamic model with a focus on the interplay between social influence for consideration at the product and category levels. The model differentiates between indirect social influence (at the collective level) and direct social influence (at the individual level). We apply the model to the context of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the United States between 2000 and 2010. Specifically, we study spatio-temporal interactions between adoption patterns of the category’s most successful product—the Toyota Prius—and other HEVs. We find that their joint adoption is marked, initially, by strong positive cross-product social influence spillovers. Yet, as the category matures, positive spillovers, in particular those involving direct social influence, decrease. We suggest that whereas social influence spillovers were critical for the buildup of consideration, their subsequent reduction facilitated patterns of differentiated adoption, shielding the category from within-category competition. Our findings provide insights into timing and directions of, and strategies for, new product and category emergence. We discuss how the model can be applied to other contexts—through further empirical as well as counterfactual analysis—including to those involving emerging categories with boundaries that are fuzzier than those of HEVs. We discuss practical implications for sustainability transitions.